Strait of Hormuz Closure

Model the impact of a Hormuz disruption on Gulf oil exports. Adjust disruption severity and pipeline bypass assumptions. Results flow to Global Supply.

Bypass capable (Petroline)
100% Hormuz dependent
Partial bypass (ADCOP)
Partial bypass (pipeline)
Petroline pipeline
ADCOP pipeline
Iraq-Turkey pipeline
Tanker route through Hormuz
Hormuz chokepoint zone
Port / terminal
Bypass is a fraction of the flow: Saudi and UAE pipelines can divert roughly 3–4 mb/d around the strait, but ~17 mb/d of crude transits Hormuz daily. Even fully utilised, the bypass covers less than a quarter of what moves through the chokepoint — the shortfall isn't close to being replaced by pipeline alternatives.

Hormuz Disruption

Disruption Severity
0% = open, 100% = total closure. Same for both timeframes.
0%100%

Pipeline Bypass Ramp-up

How much of each pipeline's SPARE capacity is activated? Short-run = immediate response. Long-run = weeks/months later.
Petroline spare used
Spare: 3–5 mb/d. Full ramp takes weeks.
0%100%
ADCOP spare used
Spare: ~0.44 mb/d. Shorter pipeline, faster ramp.
0%100%
Iraq-Turkey spare used
Spare: ~1.4 mb/d. Political/security risks.
0%100%

Port & Route Capacity

Even if the pipeline has capacity, the destination port may not.
Yanbu port capacity
25
Fujairah port capacity
13
Ceyhan terminal capacity
13
Red Sea (Bab el-Mandeb) risk
Houthi disruption risk reduces effective Yanbu throughput.
0%50%

Results

Gulf production (baseline)—
Oil routed through Hormuz—
Oil disrupted at Hormuz—
Pipeline bypass (actual)—
Net oil removed from market —

Sources