Global Supply Impact

The oil removed from the market by the Hormuz disruption is partially offset by OPEC spare capacity, strategic reserve releases, and non-OPEC supply increases. The waterfall chart shows the balance.

Caveat: OPEC spare and non-OPEC response take weeks-to-months to materialise. SPR releases can begin within days but are finite. The short-run impact (first weeks) will be worse than this steady-state calculation shows.

Supply Parameters

Global Oil Production 103.0 mb/d
IEA world oil supply, early 2026.
100 106
OPEC Spare Capacity Response 2.0 mb/d
Non-Hormuz OPEC members ramping up. Saudi spare counted in map pipeline bypass.
0 5
IEA Strategic Reserve Release 1.0 mb/d
Coordinated IEA member release. 2022 precedent: ~1 mb/d for 6 months.
0 3
Non-OPEC Supply Response 0.5 mb/d
US shale, Canada, Brazil etc. Slow (months), but adds supply.
0 2

Results

Oil removed (from Map) —
OPEC spare offsetting —
Strategic reserves offsetting —
Non-OPEC supply offsetting —
Net global supply reduction —
As % of global production —
Net reduction = removed − OPEC spare − SPR release − non-OPEC response