Bargaining Power

When refinery output drops, who absorbs the shortfall? Adjust bargaining power to model how competing buyers divide reduced supply. Higher power = more protected from cuts.

Waiting for upstream data. Visit the Refineries page first.
Power weights dominate: Like elasticity on the price page, the assumed bargaining power sliders are the most sensitive input here. AU's allocation swings more with small changes in assumed power than with changes in total shortfall size — treat the defaults as a starting point, not a forecast.

Key Competitors

Australia
LNG leverage vs JP/KR/CN. 28-50 day reserves.
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China
Command economy. 120+ day reserves.
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Japan
254-day reserves. METI directives.
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South Korea
Aramco owns 63% of S-Oil. 200+ day reserves.
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India
5M bpd refining. Only 9.5-day SPR.
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Regional Buyers

Singapore
Hub control. AU bilateral guarantee.
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Malaysia
Petronas vertical integration.
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Taiwan
62% US crude. 146-day reserves.
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Indonesia
21-25 day reserves. Near Singapore.
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Philippines
98% import dependent. No SPR.
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Vietnam
9-day reserves.
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Others
Small buyers, minimal leverage.
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Australia's Shortfall

Crude shortfall—
Petrol —
Diesel —
Jet / kerosene —
Other products —
% of AU baseline —

Sources